The Indianapolis Colts may have the strangest split between actual results and results versus spread this season.
We don’t think too much about the Colts. There are 4-5 of them this season. But against the spread, they were one of the best teams in the NFL with an impressive 7-2 record. According to the Action Network, only two teams, the Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders, have a better record against the spread this season. They are the only team in the NFL with a losing record that is also at least two games over .500 against the spread. This is a strange season for the Colts from a betting standpoint. They may not be very good, but players should like them.
Here’s a look at Week 10 of the NFL from a betting perspective, with all the odds from BetMGM:
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow wandered the sideline irritated last Sunday after throwing five touchdowns in a win, and there had to be a reason for that. He knows Thursday night against the Baltimore Ravens could be the defining matchup of the Bengals’ season. The Bengals, at 4-5, will have to survive a setback or two to make the playoffs, and they are 6-point underdogs in Baltimore.
There’s reason to believe the Bengals can at least keep him under control. Burrow is playing well, and the Ravens’ weakness is their pass defense. Cincinnati should have won the opener in arguably the best game of the first half of this NFL season back in Week 5, but a failed field goal attempt in overtime led to a 41-38 Ravens victory. Baltimore is tough to slow down, but the Bengals can score against them.
The NFL is promoting its international games, but it needs to provide other countries with better games. Does anyone think they’re attracting new fans with the New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers game in Germany on Sunday morning? Woof. The Giants are 6.5-point favorites entering the game, and that seems a little high considering neither team is good. If Daniel Jones can’t have a big game against the Panthers defense, it might actually be time for the Giants to make a QB change. Football fanatics will keep their eyes on any two teams, but this game will test that.
The NFL needs to do a little more planning for some games. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not happy. They played on the road Monday night and then returned home to face the San Francisco 49ers, who had a bye last week. That’s simply not enough for the NFL schedule makers. The 49ers, who could see Christian McCaffrey return, are 6-point favorites. This relatively large line indicates that oddsmakers took into account the difference in the rest of the Bucs’ performance in this game. It’s difficult for them to be here.
Just a month ago you wouldn’t have thought a Wilson win would look good, but things are changing quickly. Wilson has 264 and 278 yards in his first two starts for the Steelers and is looking pretty good. The Commanders’ defense is improving, but is still average at best this season. Wilson’s total passing yards are just 216.5. Do we believe in transferring his career resurgence to another game?
Every NFL team should take every game with the same seriousness, but that’s not realistic. And the Washington Commanders have a damn good forecast for Sunday.
They will face the Pittsburgh Steelers, but their thoughts may be focused on the 11th round game. On Thursday night in Week 11, the Commanders take on the Philadelphia Eagles in a massive NFC East matchup. This may be good news for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who play the Commanders on Sunday and are 3-point underdogs. The Commanders are a good team, but so are the Steelers. Don’t be surprised if Commanders looks a little flat.
The Detroit Lions are the best team in the NFL right now. This doesn’t mean they are invincible. It’s a tough matchup for the Lions, who face the Houston Texans for the second straight road game. The Lions are 3.5-point favorites, which seems a bit big. The Lions got a big win over the Green Bay Packers and the Texans got some extra rest after a tough loss to the New York Jets. Keep an eye on Nico Collins’ availability as the Texans look to reclaim their No. 1 receiver soon. Let’s not forget that the Texans are a pretty good team too.
The Los Angeles Rams are on a roll and everyone will be focused on getting the offense healthy. This obviously helps. But it is the defense that has made huge strides forward in recent weeks. Los Angeles looks like a team that could be a big story in the second half of the season. First, they have to beat the Miami Dolphins on Monday night. They are a slight 1 point favorite. Miami became a better team with the return of Tua Tagovailoa, and although they have lost both games since his return, both were very close and heartbreaking losses. This should be a fun game and a good test to see if the Rams’ hot streak can continue.
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